Do the Merits Matter More? The Impact of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act

This article examines the effect of the Private Securities LitigationReform Act of 1995 (PSLRA) on stockholder lawsuits. We explorethe role of restatements, earnings forecasts, and insider tradingin the filing and resolution of lawsuits for a sample of hightechnology firms. Consistent with our predictions, there isa post-PSLRA shift away from litigation based on forward-lookingearnings disclosures. Conversely, there is a significantly greatercorrelation between litigation and both earnings restatementsand abnormal insider selling after the PSLRA. Finally, we finda post-PSLRA increase in the likelihood of settlement for casesinvolving earnings restatements.     

Structure and understanding: Some observations on current activities in the field of structural modeling

Structural modeling has been under study in recent years as a method for dealing with complex societal problems, and is growing in acceptance as a tool for understanding complex social phenomena. Structural models demonstrate the interactions of the separate elements of a system and their combined overall effect. Thus, the nature of the problem for which this method of analysis is appropriate is different from complex problems of the traditional disciplines which lend themselves to reductionist approaches. This is because complex policy problems of society cannot be “solved” with precise analysis. Kenneth Boulding suggests that there are two ways to cope with a complex policy problem, either to “slice” the problem into partial equilibrium sections or “squeeze” it by aggregating numerous variables into a single index or macho variable. Structural modeling is an approach which comes under the general strategy of squeezing the problem and is promising because of the ability to include a range of macro variables which provide insights about social change. The articles in this issue treat several interesting aspects of this approach. In this article we wish to recall for consideration a central purpose for developing such methods. We have taken a historical approach to indicate some of the roots of the concern for the effect of technological process on social change. Within this context, we discuss the nature of the contributions made by the articles in this issue and what promise the methods offer to addressing the historical concern.     

Money in the pure consumption loan model

The purpose of this paper is to show how modern techniques of Temporary competitive equilibrium analysis can be applied to models of the “pure consumption loan model” type. One considers Samuelson's simplest model where traders live two periods and where money is the only store of value. It is proved that a temporary equilibrium exists if price expectations are sufficiently independent of current prices. A stationary market equilibrium is shown to exist if there is a set of traders (i) whose total resources are greater when they are young than when they are old, (ii) who are indifferent between present and future consumption. It is proved that this existence theorem still holds if the economy is sufficiently “close” to an economy which has this property. A stationary market equilibrium is shown to be Pareto optimal if all traders hold positive cash balances. It may be inefficient if this condition is not satisfied, for some traders may then be willing to borrow, which they cannot do in this model.     

Collaboration, peer review and open source software

Open source software development may be superior to proprietary development because the open source organizational form naturally minimizes transactions costs associated with privately distributed information. This manifests itself in the ability of open source communities to encourage critical peer review and the sharing of ideas. When these activities are important, the open source organizational form may do better than a proprietary organizational form. My results suggest why open source is particularly powerful when maintainability of software is critical, and also suggest that the founder of a software project may be more likely to choose open source if there is an existing dominant proprietary software project.     

The Influence of Environmental Pressures, Diversification Strategy, and Union/Nonunion Setting on Employee Participation

This study tests the hypotheses that environment, diversification strategy, and union/nonunion setting affect the number and variety of employee participation programs. A survey of large U.S. manufacturing firms measured the implementation of employee participation programs. Regression results suggest that environmental pressures exert a direct effect on participation in union settings. However, in nonunion settings, environment and diversification strategy both correlated directly with participation. These results suggest that unions could potentially affect participation program implementation.     

The Efficiency Impact of the Chinese Industrial Reforms in the 1980’s

A stochastic frontier production function is used to estimate the effect of partial and gradual reforms in the 1980’s in each of seven state-owned manufacturing industries. Reform-induced gains in technical efficiency were significant in all sample industries although not always substantial enough to motivate industry-wide productivity growth. The bonus system had speedy and impressive efficiency effects, but there is no consistent evidence on the effectiveness of other reform measures, including greater output autonomy, partial exposure to market influences, and the possibility of dismissals for malfeasance. Equalization of marginal factor returns across firms was observed in some industries, which may be considered as evidence of improved allocative efficiency in response to the reforms.     

Binomial Option Pricing with Skewed Asset Returns

This research presents a method for estimating the parameters of the binomial option pricing model necessary to appropriately price calls on assets with asymmetric end-of-period return distributions. Parameters of the binomial model are shown to be a function of the mean, variance, and skewness of the underlying return distribution. It is also shown that failure to incorporate skewness results in the mispricing of the call.     

天然气价格与原油价格的关系及其发展趋势

天然气价格与重质燃料油、家用取暖油或原油价格挂钩,使得天然气价格能够与竞争能源的价格协调,保证了天然气的销售.欧洲和亚洲市场目前仍然采用这样的价格公式和合同.但是自20世纪80年代美国和英国的天然气市场取消管制以后,长期合同和与石油价格指数挂钩的天然气定价公式受到了挑战:以前20～25年的合同期限缩短到10年之内;出现了天然气现货市场,形成了受美国纽约商品交易所或英国国际石油交易所调节的市场,并出现了标准合同(如期货和期权).今后,现货价与期货价相结合的复杂的指数化价格公式可能辅助或取代原有的石油指数价格定价模式.电价的指数价格可能更频繁地用于为天然气定价.原油价格依旧会影响天然气价格,能源间的相互作用可以调节暂时的价差过大.2050年美国在世界LNG贸易中所占的份额将由目前的5%～6%增加到25%.天然气在家用、工业、发电和运输等各个领域的消费量将不断增长,天然气价格下跌的可能性不大.     

The potential benefits of herbicide-resistant transgenic rice in Uruguay: Lessons for small developing countries

In many developing countries, the potential benefits from adopting a transgenic variety developed by a multinational corporation are limited by the crop’s small production base. This paper presents an ex-ante evaluation of the economic impact of herbicide resistant transgenic rice in a small developing country, Uruguay. To fully account for the multinational’s market power, the firm’s seed markup is assumed to affect the adoption rate for the variety. Stochastic simulation techniques are employed to understand how potential benefits may vary with changes in technology, yield, costs, and adoption parameters. The results indicate a $1.82 million mean net present value for producers from the development and utilization of transgenic rice in Uruguay and $0.55 million for the multinational. These relatively small multinational firm benefits suggest that a firm will not undertake significant efforts to develop transgenic varieties adapted to local conditions without either strategic partnerships with local institutions or access to wider regional markets.